Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (2024)

Alyssa Barbieri

May 28, 2024 12:09 pm CT

The Chicago Bears have high expectations heading into the 2024 season, where they’re expected to contend for the playoffs after some big offseason additions, including rookies Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze, along with a returning top-10 defense.

In addition to facing their NFC foes twice, Chicago will play the NFC West and AFC South this season, which includes home games against the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars, as well as away games against the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans.

With the Bears finishing fourth in the NFC North, they’ll also face the same-place finisher in the NFC East and NFC South. With that additional 17th game, they’ll host the AFC East same-place finisher.

ESPNhas released their 2024 projections, including win probability for all 17 games for each team. Where do they project the Bears to finish in 2024 and how many of their 17 games do they have a favorable win probability in? Here’s a look:

Week 1: vs. Tennessee Titans

Aug 12, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) scores on a 62-yard touchdown catch and run in the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports ORG XMIT: IMAGN-710965 ORIG FILE ID: 20230812_sjb_qt0_010.JPG

Win probability: 72%

Week 2: at Houston Texans

Oct 8, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) runs away from the pass rush against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 41%

Week 3: at Indianapolis Colts

Week 4: vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sep 12, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet (85) breaks a tackle by Los Angeles Rams cornerback Robert Rochell (31) for a first down in the second half of the game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 58%

Week 5: vs. Carolina Panthers

Nov 9, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears defensive end Montez Sweat (98) hits Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) in during the second quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 65%

Week 6: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Oct 19, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) warms up before a game against the New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 51%

Week 7: BYE WEEK

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Week 8: at Washington Commanders

Oct 5, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Chicago Bears defensive end DeMarcus Walker (95) sacks Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 66%

Week 9: at Arizona Cardinals

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – DECEMBER 24: Kyler Gordon #6 of the Chicago Bears sacks Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals during the third quarter at Soldier Field on December 24, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Win probability: 64%

Week 10: vs. New England Patriots

Oct 24, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots safety Devin McCourty (32) tackles Chicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert (24) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 68%

Week 11: vs. Green Bay Packers

Sep 10, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) screams in celebration after picking up extra yards on a pass reception in the first half against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports ORG XMIT: IMAGN-710511 ORIG FILE ID: 20230910_szo_qt0_0322.JPG

Win probability: 52%

Week 12: vs. Minnesota Vikings

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – OCTOBER 15: K.J. Osborn #17 of the Minnesota Vikings is tackled by Jaylon Johnson #33 of the Chicago Bears during the first half at Soldier Field on October 15, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Win probability: 65%

Week 13: at Detroit Lions

Dec 10, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) throws through the defense of Chicago Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards (53) in the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 35%

Week 14: at San Francisco 49ers

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – SEPTEMBER 11: Nick Bosa #97 of the San Francisco 49ers is defended by Larry Borom #75 of the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on September 11, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Win probability: 24%

Week 15: at Minnesota Vikings

Nov 27, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Chicago Bears defensive end Montez Sweat (98) sacks Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs (15) in the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 57%

Week 16: vs. Detroit Lions

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – DECEMBER 10: Zacch Pickens #96 of the Chicago Bears hits Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions during the second half at Soldier Field on December 10, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Win probability: 43%

Week 17: vs. Seattle Seahawks

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – AUGUST 18: Cody Barton #57 of the Seattle Seahawks is tackled by Braxton Jones #70, Teven Jenkins #76, and Larry Borom #75 of the Chicago Bears during the preseason game at Lumen Field on August 18, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images)

Win probability: 58%

Week 18: at Green Bay Packers

Jan 7, 2024; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) looks on as Chicago Bears safety Jaquan Brisker (9) recovers his fumble in the third quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 45%

Win total projection

LAKE FOREST, ILLINOIS – MAY 10: Head coach Matt Eberflus of the Chicago Bears looks on during Chicago Bears Rookie Minicamp at Halas Hall on May 10, 2024 in Lake Forest, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Projected wins: 9.1

NFL rank: 14th