Eleven games under .500, Mets visit Nationals for three (2024)

The Mets (24-35) began their four-game series against the Diamondbacks with a pair of wins, making it seem possible that they just might make a little bit of progress on recovering from an awful stretch of play over the month that preceded the series. Instead, the team lost both the third and fourth games of the series—the former via blowout and the latter via an extremely on-brand loss in a game they could have easily won.

With that, the team enters its three-game series in Washington, D.C. eleven games under .500. The Mets are 5.0 games back of the third Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re just 3.5 games up on the Marlins for the worst record in the National League.

The Nationals (27-31), however, have been surprisingly decent. Projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball coming into the season, the team currently sits 1.5 games out of the aforementioned third Wild Card spot. They’re a half-game better than the Diamondbacks team that just split the four-game series with the Mets.

Hitting is not exactly the Nationals’ strength. The team has averaged 3.95 runs scored per game, the seventh-lowest rate in all of baseball. Collectively, the team has hit .230/.303/.355 with an 89 wRC+ that is the sixth-worst mark in the game.

Run prevention is relative strength for the Nats, though. Their rate of 4.23 runs allowed per game is the eleventh-best mark in the league. Nationals starters have a 3.91 ERA that ranks a respectable thirteenth, while the team’s bullpen has a 3.76 ERA that ranks fifteenth.

As for familiar faces, the Nationals don’t feature any former Mets on the position player side of their roster. Noted niche Mets nemesis Jesse Winker is on the roster, though, and has been one of the team’s above-average hitters. On the pitching side, Trevor Williams and Jacob Barnes, both of whom spent time with the Mets within the past three years, are on the roster. Both of them figure to pitch at some point during the series, as Williams is starting the second game and Barnes is one of the team’s active relievers.

Monday, June 3: Tylor Megill vs. MacKenzie Gore at 6:45 PM EDT on SNY

Megill (2024): 16.0 IP, 20 K, 6 BB, 0 HR, 1.69 ERA, 1.96 FIP, 44 ERA-

This isn’t the first time that Megill has put up tantalizing stats over a short stretch at the major league level, but these numbers have been some of his very best to date. A fairly long stint on the injured list robbed Megill of the opportunity to fully establish himself by this point of the season, but the strikeout and walk rates look legitimately good. His Statcast page looks pretty good, too.

Gore (2024): 58.2 IP, 72 K, 17 BB, 5 HR, 2.91 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 72 ERA-

The 25-year-old lefty has gotten off to a great start in his second season with the Nationals, having already eclipsed his 2023 fWAR and put up more than half of his 2023 bWAR. Traded to the Nationals as part of the Juan Soto return, Gore—who was a consensus top-ten prospect in all of baseball heading into the 2021 season—finished the 2023 season with a 4.42 ERA and a 4.89 FIP.

Tuesday, June 4: David Peterson vs. Trevor Williams at 6:45 PM EDT on SNY

Peterson (2024): 5.0 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 1 HR, 3.60 ERA, 5.15 FIP, 94 ERA-

In his first major league start since hip surgery in November, the 28-year-old lefty was fine. Considering the fact that he faced the Dodgers in his first start following a long break, that’s far from the end of the world. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not he fares significantly better against a far-worse lineup.

Williams (2024): 56.2 IP, 47 K, 16 BB, 2 HR, 2.22 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 55 ERA-

After putting up pretty good numbers as a Met in 2021 and 2022—following the trade that saw him and Javier Báez join the Mets at the ‘21 deadline—Williams took the capitol by storm by putting up a 5.55 ERA in 144.1 innings with the Nationals last year. He’s been surprisingly good through his first eleven starts this year.

Wednesday, June 5: Luis Severino vs. Patrick Corbin at 4:05 PM EDT on SNY

Severino (2024): 64.0 IP, 54 K, 27 BB, 5 HR, 3.52 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 92 ERA-

Over his last five starts, he has a 4.97 ERA and has averaged just shy of six innings per start, inching him closer and closer to being a league-average starting pitcher. The Mets should still be very happy with what they’ve seen from him so far coming off his poor 2023 season, but he could end up settling into a mid-rotation role. There’s really nothing wrong with that.

Corbin (2024): 66.1 IP, 41 K, 26 BB, 9 HR, 5.83 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 145 ERA-

Believe it or not, the guy who long ago lost his hold on being the most relevant major league played named Corbin is in the final year of one of the most infamous deals in recent memory. Since the starts of the 2021 season, Corbin has a 5.76 ERA that is the worst mark among 120 qualified pitchers. This year, he’s merely the runner-up for that spot, as he’s the owner of the second-worst ERA among qualified pitchers right now.