2019 RED SKY - JAMES WRIGHT JACKIE CROSSMAN DAVITHA GHIASSI

RED SKY PREDICTIONS 2019 AUTHORS: JAMES WRIGHT CEO, Havas PR and Global Chairman, Havas PR Collective JACKIE CROSSMAN Executive Director, Red Agency DAVITHA GHIASSIExecutive Director, Social & Integration, Red Agency & Havas PR havas pr

PREDICTIONS 2. Encouraging screen/life balance 1. With people touching their smartphones on average 2,600 times a day, social platforms 2019 will increasingly come under pressure to address screen addiction in taming the tech beasts they themselves have created. Following Facebook’s ‘you’re all caught up’ feature lead, mainstream channels will continue to roll out tools to limit, monitor and manage people’s usage in the spirit of public health. Expect the launch of various new platform features in collaboration with The more things change? And as media fights to claw back trust mental health experts, researchers and It’s 70 years since George Orwell wrote 1984 in news, brands with sponsorship dollars, particularly in sports, will CYBER WELFARE: academics. In 2019 we will see tech titans take charge of the digital detox trend. – and 35 years since we lived in actual 1984. George was prescient. require administrators to show greater leadership and action to restore trust. FROM SOCIAL TO 3. Preventing social bullying and In 2019, it’s same, same but different. We’ve swapped Orwellian Newspeak, We will see a more grown up conversation SOCIETY PLATFORMS self-harm Eight in 10* young people want social around nationalism – led by teens born media companies to do more to tackle doublespeak and the Ministry of Truth for politically correct and intent on shaping cyberbullying. Expect new social listening and Trumpian tweets and not letting the facts Social user growth will continue to surge – their future. activation initiatives to support victims of all get in the way of a preferred story. but in doing so the leading platforms will also We will start a movement around mental ages, with Australia’s eSafety Commissioner Big Brother is still watching – but so is Big grow a social conscience. And if they don’t? fitness - but talk to each other less, recommending its Cyberbullying reporting Sister, and she’s on an unstoppable mission. They’ll be forced to address the public’s and to our devices and appliances more. scheme for children be extended to welfare anyway when global and domestic This year, things get personal. DNA privacy protect adults too through swift take-down 1984 was Orwell’s vision for the future. regulations cultivate a groundswell of public will get put under the microscope, marketers of offensive, reported material on social This is Red Agency’s and our Havas PR opinion calling for action to force their hands. will get their hands on genetic codes, social platforms. Researchers are leveraging AI families’ take on tomorrow. This year, social platforms become ‘society and data from Twitter to identify people with platforms will get to grips with social welfare, influencers will take on new shapes - and Here’s what to expect. platforms’, when, willingly or not, they take suicidal thoughts by identifying words and agencies will set out new ways to measure on increased responsibility to monitor and phrases commonly used by people at risk, their value. administer public safety – protecting their including tone and context – not just what users from others and themselves. they say, but how they say it. The next step It’s the year truth-seekers fight back, with will be research into how social platforms journalists channeling Sherlock Holmes Three categories are shaping the shift to can be harnessed to automatically provide as quality investigative reporting makes social platforms: support to society through data aggregation a Lazarus-like comeback. 1. Detection and protection against and technological advances that play a role public threats on the platforms and beyond. We’ve already seen the Facebook ‘mark From anti-bullying bots to branded ‘social yourself safe’ feature roll out in times of (media) good’ initiatives – over the coming natural disaster or terror attacks. Behind year, expect an increase in marketing the scenes, the platform’s 200+ counter- campaigns centered around community terrorism team uses machine learning-based safety and self-care as a result – with brands detection technology to assess and address advocating protection of their consumers. posts that may signal support for ISIS or Also expect more global cooperation among al-Qaeda. New audio and text hashing the platforms as they form a united front techniques join image and video ones to to tackle the big online issues in society detect terrorist content. Facebook shares – because they’re all going to be held to these digital fingerprints with a consortium account if they don’t. of tech partners organised by the Global SOURCE: Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism (GIFCT), * UK Children’s Society survey, https://www.bbc.com/news/ havas technology-43197937 including Microsoft, Twitter, and YouTube. pr Expect growing collaboration between platforms on a joint public safety mission.2 RED SKY PREDICTIONS 2019 RED SKY PREDICTIONS 2019 3

CURIOSITY, CAUTION & CLONING: HOW AUSTRALIANS FEEL ABOUT DNA TESTING Curiosity trumps caution when ancestral history (22%), the type of it comes to Australians’ thirst for chocolate they might like (20%) and2. knowledge about their health or history. low shedding pets if they had a fur More than two million Australian adults allergy (19%) compared to those who – 10% of the population – have had haven’t yet had their DNA tested, but a DNA test, giving up their unique who are interested in doing so (13%, genetic code despite huge concerns 8% and 11% respectively). about privacy – or being cloned. Health-focused offers are the most The YouGov Galaxy Predictors 2019 keenly sought marketing information Study commissioned by Red Agency in among both the already tested and February 2019 found helping our health the interested in being tested. and accessing our ancestry are the About one in three from both groups main motivators for sharing our DNA. would be happy to receive ideas for Health accounted for three of the low fat foods if they were pre-disposed four main advantages of DNA testing, to weight gain (33% for already tested,DNA: THE NEW with identifying potential health risks 29% for interested in being tested); (55%) seen as the number one benefit, while about one in four would welcome recipe ideas for food allergies andDATA PRIVACY - AND followed by better monitoring by health providers (35%) and modifying DNA intolerances (25% for tested, 29% for to prevent or cure a disease (30%). interested) and the health insuranceMARKETING GOLDMINE As the classic Australian song says, ‘from all the lands on earth we come’ policies best suited to their DNA (25% for both groups). Even people who are not interested in DNA testing – and many of us want to know exactly hypothetically said they would be more where that was, with learning where interested in health-related marketing our ancestors came from (44%) information (14% for allergy recipes, In 2019, the global conversation shifts Who can access it? What they can do with package – genetic testing combined with viewed as the second biggest 13% for low fat foods and 11% for from Data Privacy to DNA Privacy – and first it? Can law enforcement or the government lifestyle coaching, including diet and exercise benefit of DNA testing. health insurance policies) compared mover marketers will prepare to leverage pressure testing companies to share your recommendations, based on the results. DNA’s potential to unlock secrets to other types of offers. the ultimate in business intelligence. DNA? Do you have to disclose it to health or about our past or shape our future Across generations, Millennials (63%) Education – Curious about where you come life insurers? Add potential hackers, forgotten wellbeing is tempered by caution, are much more receptive to post-test More than 12 million Americans and two ^ from? Do the test, then get offers to learn with privacy our biggest worry. Most consent options you ticked and fine print marketing compared to Gen X (44%) million Australians* have tested their DNA – about your family heritage and history, the of us are concerned about our DNA and Baby Boomers (39%), for you didn’t read to the mix, and the boom falling into the wrong hands (53%), mostly out of curiosity, to learn their ancestry migration patterns of your ancestors, or whom DNA could well stand for in genetic testing becomes an ethicist’s being exploited by health insurance ‘Do Not Approach’. or about their health, including genetic learn the language they spoke. companies to make us cough up nightmare and a marketer’s dream. predisposition to diseases. Kuwait has Travel – Go back to where you came higher premiums (40%), or turning us Offers with a health angle again rule Genetic marketing makes its move into a target for identity theft (38%). the roost, with ideas for low fat options become the first country to make DNA from, based on your genealogy. Half (22%) and helpful recipes for food testing mandatory for all residents^. One of those consent boxes ticked may well Scandinavian? Visit Sweden to explore One in four Millennials and Gen Xers intolerances or allergies (22%) topping But how many of those millions know what (25%) worry they could follow in Dolly be agreeing to share your DNA with third the Vikings. Travel to find or meet relatives. the list overall with no difference across the sheep’s hoofsteps and be cloned happens to their DNA when they give it up? parties for research or marketing purposes. Mexico’s national carrier Aeromexico all three generations. from their test sample without their DNA privacy conversation takes 2019 is the year brands get to grips with went viral this year with its politically timely knowledge. Fewer Baby Boomers are Interestingly, for a public wary of how the marketing goldmine – or logistical, worried about that prospect, with just private health insurance companies centre stage ‘DNA discounts’ ad, offering discounted might exploit DNA test results, almost one in five (20%) troubled about being ethical and legal minefield – that awaits. flights from the US to Mexico to Americans one in five people (19%) want to hear We guard our passwords and clear our replicated without knowing it. DNA testing will have immediate marketing who showed by taking a test that they had about the health insurance product cookies, but voluntarily share the most The results revealed a split down the most suited to their DNA. Millennials applications in three key areas: Mexican DNA – with some unsuspecting middle when it comes to the marketing valuable identifier we have – our genetic code. were the most receptive to this one folk given their result on camera. implications of DNA testing. While Many of those who have undergone DNA Healthcare – Forget collecting shopping (25%), compared to Gen X and Baby almost four in 10 (38%) Australians are testing will have their Windows 95 moment Boomers (both 15%). preferences from rewards cards swiped at In 2019, the DNA dilemma is about managing concerned their DNA could be used for this year. Just as people queued to buy the supermarket checkouts, marketers with risk versus reward. How much are you marketing purposes, half (49%) would There was one area where every be interested in receiving marketing generation overwhelmingly agreed heavily hyped software – without realising access to DNA will have the ultimate tool are prepared to give up for knowledge, information based on their DNA results. they didn’t want meddling from they needed a computer to run it – millions for personalised offers and targeted ads. convenience or a discount? Be careful what DNA testing: Dating. We might aspire who have handed over their DNA without Younger generations and those who Predisposed to diabetes or obesity? you wish for, because once the genie is out to a ‘match made in heaven’, but only have been DNA tested are the most understanding the privacy implications will be Here are food or fitness products to of the bottle, there’s no going back in – for open to marketing offers: 70% of the 7% of respondents wanted a dating match made based on their DNA retrospectively scrambling to clarify exactly manage your health. In the US, Arivale, those willing to share their code, and those already-tested would welcome offers profile. The vast majority of Millennials what they have given away. Who owns it? a Seattle-based start-up, offers a wellness wanting to leverage it. related to their results. (87%), Gen X (91%) and Baby SOURCE: Those with a DNA test under their belt Boomers (98%) all preferred to leave ^ Health & Data: To the Next Level, Prosumer report, Red Agency/Havas, 2019 are far more likely to want to receive matters of the heart to something * Red Agency YouGov Galaxy Report, February 2019 Predictors Study offers about travel tours based on their other than their genetic code.4 RED SKY PREDICTIONS 2019 RED SKY PREDICTIONS 2019 5

5.INFLUENCER MARKETING 3 – Narrators – these influencers may have small-to-no social media presence of their own, but they offer media appeal outside of the social space itself. Leveraging their media landscape credibility, brands will leverage these personalities to put a face or name to their own content and campaigns. Narrators will help shape the story – but it’s the brand that spreads it. The categories of influence will also be 6. CONSENSUS ‘TRUMPS’REIMAGINED: TRUE VALUE redefined, based on shared values. TRUTH – BUT THETAKES ON NEW SHAPES Who you work with will no longer be based on who they are – a mummy, travel or TIDE IS TURNING beauty blogger – but on what they stand for. Think ethics, compassion, sustainability, environment. Who shares the same core We are now in the second Age of Consensus. It’s President Trump chalking up 5,611 false values as your brand, and therefore could Think you know all there is to know about And it’s a far cry from the first time around’s and misleading claims last year – an average tell the most powerful story alongside you? Influencers? Think again. Over the past few model of cooperation in Britain and the US, of 15 porkies a day, triple the rate from the Reach and engagement alone have lost years, Influencer Marketing has morphed where both sides of politics came together, year before*. relevance, with consumers in general – from a mysterious mechanic to a method despite their ideological differences, to rebuild and Millennials in particular – looking to It’s political agendas with rhetoric on repeat, for the masses – but the meaning of and strengthen their status as superpowers brands that embody a higher purpose. constructed versions of reality that are ‘influence’ has gotten lost in the process. post-WWII. anything but, and false conversations – Additionally, as influencers continue to In 2019, influence, influencers and This time it’s different – and much more with real consequences. cross the border between content, measuring impact will be redefined. frightening. community and paid – measuring success It’s time to remember the first Age of Influence becomes an exchange of not in this merged new space will increasingly The Age of Consensus 2.0 puts the ‘con’ Consensus followed a war brought about by just value, but values – forget micro and take on custom forms. As old engagement in consensus. Forget fat-free. This is a fact- a platform built on propaganda. And it’s time macro types – with three new categories rate scores and AVE drop dead, custom free political diet where it’s not about the for push back. Professional communicators of influencers representing the types of measures of success will become the truth – but about getting enough people will put a stake in the ground, speak truth to value exchange they deliver: new benchmark and brands will judge to believe something, even if it is not true. power – and not enable ‘spin to win’ to go success by their own performance, unchallenged. When even Fox News starts 1 – Co-creators – they influence your It’s a new way of propagating the message – rather than industry standards. They will proving Trump claims wrong, you know the content. You’ll work with them not because cutting out the middle man or woman, AKA, set their own benchmarks and use custom consensus pendulum is swinging back in they offer mass reach or niche engagement, the media – and delivering the sell directly to scoring systems following strategically favour of accountability. but because they will create and curate the audience via social channels or by using informed ROI calculations that look at parliamentary privilege, and not letting the In 2019, just because you can make someone creative assets more efficiently and the multi-channel big picture based on all effectively than branded content that truth get in the way of a good pitch. believe something, doesn’t mean you should. components of a campaign, from production was captured bespoke. of content to sentiment – not PR, Social, We’ve gone from Seinfeld’s George SOURCE: * https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/12/30/year-unprecedented- 2 – Distributors – these are influencers with Influencers, Content, Community or Paid Costanza’s memorable ‘It’s not a lie, if you deception-trump-averaged-false-claims-day/?noredirect=on&utm_ term=.2aaa2db6a349 access to an audience you want to reach. in isolation. Red Agency has already believe it’; to it doesn’t matter if it’s a lie, if Micro or macro, mummy or beauty, their developed a custom Merged Media you make others believe it – and vote for you. active presence in your audiences’ online score that measures overall campaign existence is what makes them powerful performance, rather than ad hoc metrics, ongoing partners as they take on the role with the relative success of campaigns able of mini or mass brand ambassadors. to be compared against each other too.8 RED SKY PREDICTIONS 2019 RED SKY PREDICTIONS 2019 9

This year will see a seismic shift as the The percentage of women on boards of groundswell of support for women’s ASX 200 companies and the proportion of rights brings mounting pressure for women comprising new appointments has gender equality and greater transparency increased significantly from a low base of7. at all levels. As #MeToo offenders head 8.3% in 2009. Women now fill three in to court, the conversation changes from 10 ASX 200 board positions (29.7%), payback, to #PayUp. with 100 women joining the ranks in 2018 – nearly half (45.4%) of new appointments. If #MeToo was the earthquake, #PayUp Only four boards remain holdouts with no is the tsunami – and there’s no turning women at all***. There are more female back the tide. bums on board seats, but fewer in the top Big Sister is watching, but this is more C-level chairs, with just 17.1% of CEOs than a women’s movement; it’s a cultural women^. But women are marching through movement – and defining moment. It’s why the management ranks, representing almost Google staff globally regardless of gender 40% of manager positions and 43% of staged unprecedented walkouts in protest management promotions**. Expect to hit#METOO, ESCALATES – at the behemoth’s treatment of women. It’s gaining traction back where #MeToo the magic 50 milestone mark soon. With national women’s leagues in traditionalIT’S TIME TO #PAYUP began, with more women in Hollywood exerting influence behind the camera off- male sports like cricket and AFL attracting growing participation, TV airtime and screen – and breaking stereotypes on it. audiences at games, expect sports TV Networks are mandating women in the administrators to call for a bigger slice of director’s chair, studios have implemented the monetarised pie. #PayUp means show mentoring programs, and actresses insisting more than Cuba Gooding Jr. the money. on more control are joining the ranks of We know Hollywood loves a good sequel. producers, not just cast members. Of the #MeToo has paved the way for #PayUp. 42 drama show pilots ordered by US The next wave will be diversity, going broadcast networks last year, 14 were beyond gender equality and pay gaps, directed by women – one in three – to mirror the real world in media, marketing, up from one in total in 2017*. creative campaigns and content. Get ready Mind the gap? Yes, women do – but it’s for #Represent. closing. Call it the Lisa Wilkinson effect. SOURCE: Australia’s gender pay gap closed by 1.1% * https://www.reuters.com/article/us-television-women/after-metoo- hollywood-women-seize-power-behind-tv-camera-idUSKBN1L1119 last year – its biggest single year drop – but ** https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/employers-are-taking- it’s still a yawning chasm at 21.3%, and men action-biggest-single-year-drop-in-gender-pay-gap-20181111-p50fdy.html *** https://aicd.companydirectors.com.au/advocacy/board-diversity/statistics have a higher median income than women ^ https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/no-the-gender- in 97% of full-time jobs**, with women still pay-gap-is-not-a-myth-and-here-s-why-it-matters-20181114-p50g0e.html more likely to be employed in either lower- paid industries or in less senior positions.10 RED SKY PREDICTIONS 2019 RED SKY PREDICTIONS 2019 11

8. THE MIND FIT MOVEMENT 9. LOOK WHO’S TALKING: THE ‘EARS IN’ GENERATIONGOES MAINSTREAM SWITCHES ON TO SOUND In 2019, a powerful shift marks the arrival employees (56%) have some level of The ‘Ears In’ generation already spends 32 Siri and Google Assistant are each now of the ‘Mind Fit’ Movement as mental health depression** (compared to a national average hours a week listening to music – a whopping actively used on half a billion devices. in the workplace is recognised, destigmatised of 35%), thanks to perfect storm conditions 40 hours for Millennials^ – most of it with There are more than 28,000 Alexa-compatible and mobilised. for mental health problems including long earphones in. This year, we don’t just listen, smart home devices from 4,500 different hours, a high-stress culture and 24-hour we start talking more – not to each other, ‘Mental fitness’ becomes the new personal brands, including a US$60 voice-activated news cycles where the pressure never stops. but to our devices. In 2019, sound is the training, as mental health gets off the microwave. The number of people using Alexa new mute. It’s big. And big business. (psychologist’s) couch, with support services Red Agency/Havas has kick-started a Mind daily doubled in 2018 – and Alexa told more increasingly accessed on devices, on the go. Fit Movement in-house, with wellness rooms, When video on mobile first took off, we than 100 million jokes**. (Amazon didn’t say The conversation moves into the open and flexible work hours, increased work from watched with the sound off. Cue the how many were funny.) more employers will take action to prioritise home days and providing all staff with free introduction of Stories on social platforms Voice-based search queries is the fastest- employee wellbeing. subscriptions to online support services and voice-assisted technology like Siri growing mobile search type*; half of all in additional to our Employee Assistance and Alexa on pretty much everything else, Generic corporate wellness programs will searches will be performed via voice by 2020; Scheme. It’s not only important for mental and we turned up the volume. give way to personalised approaches that and global ad spending on voice assistants health, it’s good for business and critical put employees in the drivers’ seat when it More than 60% of Instagram Stories’ will go from zero to US$19 billion by 2022***. for attracting and retaining Millennials who comes to managing their work. half billion^^ daily users now watch with expect – and demand – flexibility at work. The tills are alive, with the sound of music – sound on^^^. The emphasis – and onus – is on the SOURCE: and AI voice assistants. In 2019, the message individual, with workplaces introducing *https://www.who.int/mental_health/advocacy/investment_paper_lancet_ With video expected to account for 80% is loud and clear: Designing content for ears, psychiatry_final.pdf?ua=1 innovations that give people greater control of all web content by 2020 and massive not just eyes, is sound advice. **Never Not Creatives’ Mentally Healthy 2018 report, published December in navigating their workflows and optimising 2018 https://www.slideshare.net/adwrighty/mentally-healthy-2018-results- growth in voice technology, expect to hear SOURCE: ^ https://www.marketingcharts.com/industries/media-and- their work life balance. presentation-125032358 a lot more about the resurgence of sound. entertainment-81082 Audio books are big. Podcasts are huge. ^^ https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/instagram-stories-is-now-being- It’s about time. A whopping 12 billion working With voicemail all but dead and mobile voice used-by-500-million-people-daily/547270/ days – 50 million work years – are lost to ^^^ https://animoto.com/blog/video-marketing/add-music-instagram-story/ calls falling for the first time in the UK last year, anxiety and depression worldwide every year*. * https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2018/06/08/the-hyper- we may be hearing less of our own voices – adoption-of-voice-technology/#717326de7058 The issue is particularly acute in the creative, but we’re hearing more of our technologies’. ** https://www.cnet.com/news/amazon-sold-tens-of-millions-of-echo-devices- in-2018/ media, marketing and communications Siri, AI voice assistants and smart speakers *** https://www.recode.net/2018/11/12/17765390/voice-alexa-siri-assistant- industries, where more than half of all amazon-echo-google-assistant like Amazon’s Alexa are changing the way we search, shop and live.12 RED SKY PREDICTIONS 2019 RED SKY PREDICTIONS 2019 13

In sport we trust. Or, we used to. Trust in Women’s team sports in Australia will sport is at an all time low, a race to the increasingly fill the sponsorship and bottom with virtually no sport untouched viewership void and reap the rewards – by scandal. Match fixing. Sackings. with the Australian women’s rugby sevens,10. Tankings. Toxic cultures. Doping. Cheating. soccer, netball and basketball teams Sandpaper, anybody? taking the top four spots in a survey** of the emotional connections fans have with This risk of brands aligning with individual teams, based on respect, brand, pride, athletes and sporting codes has never been enjoyment and trust. The women’s teams greater. With sponsorship and TV rights aren’t just more emotionally connected to dollars on the line, sporting bodies will be the public – they’re much more connected in a race for survival, to restore trust and to their sponsors too. keep the big bucks that get bums on seats and keep their sport on screens. Globally, athletics faces a moment of truth in Doha in September – the chance to Research shows doping has a negative restore trust by delivering the first clean impact on television audiences, sponsorship World Championships after taking aTRUST IN SPORT: and audience attendance*. In 2008, the two German public service broadcasters, ARD tougher anti-drugs stance and continuing its aggressive punishment of Russia forA RACE FOR SURVIVAL and ZDF, pulled out of the Tour de France because of doping incidents – and the its state-backed doping program. 2009 Tour de Germany was cancelled. If the IAAF succeeds, and the most newsworthy action comes from the track, Cheating’s up there with doping as a not the laboratory – athletics will get its public turn-off in sport loving Australia, brand and fans back, and be a bellwether and Test naming rights sponsor Magellan for all other sports picking up the pieces Financial Group quickly upped stumps, of tattered reputations and tarnished trust. ending its deal with Cricket Australia when ‘Sandpapergate’ blew up. If it fails, there will be renewed calls to hand the medals to the scientists, not the athletes. Brands will increasingly take a ‘walk or SOURCE: baulk’ approach to sponsorship – walking * https://consultations.health.gov.au/population-health-and-sport-division/ away or baulking at signing without review-of-australias-sports-integrity-arrangements/supporting_documents/ HEALTH%20RASIA%20Report_Acc.pdf guarantees in place against the slightest ** https://www.smh.com.au/sport/new-low-for-men-s-test-team-as-fans- whiff of scandal. Media owners will use embrace-women-s-sporting-sides-20181127-p50in1.html public turn-off due to scandals as leverage in negotiating broadcasting rights deals.14 RED SKY PREDICTIONS 2019 RED SKY PREDICTIONS 2019 15

UNBLINKERED THINKING UNEXPECTED IDEAS AUTHORS: JAMES WRIGHT CEO, Havas PR and Global Chairman, Havas PR Collective e james.wright@havas.com m +1 917 520 7666 JACKIE CROSSMAN Executive Director, Red Agency DAVITHA GHIASSIExecutive Director, Social & Integration, Red Agency & Havas PR havas pr

2019 RED SKY - JAMES WRIGHT JACKIE CROSSMAN DAVITHA GHIASSI - Havas PR (2024)