“Sometimes, the basketball gods just go against ya.”
— Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni
Mike D’Antoni has been involved in basketball—whether it was playing or coaching—for about 60 years. He’s never missed a practice or a game. So him missing a week with a stomach virus doesn’t seem like much on the surface but it goes beyond that.
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The Rockets went 2-1 in that week, but the last game effectively threw away their chances at grabbing the No. 2 seed with 1.8 seconds to go. The loss to Oklahoma City took them from a potential series against the Clippers or Spurs and brought them to the second-hottest team in the league post All-Star break, the Utah Jazz.
These two teams actually squared off last season, but it was under much different circ*mstances. Houston was the toast of the town, winners of 65 games and dispatching first-round opponent Minnesota in five games. Utah had slugged through a six-game brawl with the Thunder, with Mitchell, a rookie, and an upstart group.
How will things go this time around? Will Chris Paul repeat his second-round heroics? Will James Harden show why he’s the reigning MVP? Will the Jazz make things uncomfortable early on? Is Rudy Gobert the Defensive Player of the Year? Two of The Athletic’s beat writers, Tony Jones and Kelly Iko break it all down in our crossover series preview.
Kelly Iko: So, the Rockets went from seemingly having the No. 2 seed in the bag, to opening up with arguably the second hottest team in the NBA post all-star break in the Jazz, how did that happen? Maybe it’s just me, but does it feel like the basketball gods were having a little fun at the end of the season? What’s the temperature of the Jazz team right now, Tony?
Tony Jones: I think both teams would rather be anywhere else other than in front of each other in the first round. But now that we are here, I would think the Jazz are looking forward to the matchup for no other reason than seeing where they stand among the Western Conference elite.
This is not going to be an easy series for the Jazz. They will be the underdogs. The Rockets are a bad matchup for them, fundamentally and in reality. But the Jazz know that to get where they ultimately want to go, they are going to eventually need to go through Houston and Golden State. The question for the Jazz may not be whether they can stop James Harden, but whether they can stop or limit Chris Paul. Harden is the NBA’s best offensive talent and he’s going to get his regardless. But if Paul looks like prime CP3, this may be a short series for the Jazz.
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Iko: I’m glad you brought up Chris Paul. He actually ended up playing the same number of games last year, 58. But it’s been an interesting year for the 10-time All-Star. His scoring understandably went down—because of James Harden’s MVP-esque load—but his shooting also went down, on 2s, on 3s and free throws.
Obviously part of that is because of the injuries at the beginning of the year. He had elbow, leg and hamstring issues. But since the All-Star break, he’s gotten back to his best. He’s improved his isolation play, he’s shooting 39 percent on above-the-break 3-pointers, where he was 34 percent before the All-Star break, and he’s playing at a faster pace — 103.03 per 100 possessions. A lot of that is because of the types of exercises he’s done since January — specialized things to keep his body fresh and looks to be in great shape right now. He’s also shooting 92 percent from the free throw line and his assists are up to 8.4.
As you saw last year in the Western Conference Finals, he took the reins in Game 5 and put up 41 points, 10 assists and 7 rebounds. Obviously, with Utah game-planning for James Harden and Clint Capela, the one key factor like you said will be Chris Paul.
But since we’re on the topic of polarizing guards, tell me about Donovan Mitchell. You remember when #NBATwitter was all on his case? That seems to have quieted down in a big way
Jones: #NBATwitter can sometimes be dumb, and they were certainly stupid in the case of Mitchell at the beginning of the year. Obviously, Mitchell has been phenomenal in January and in the second half of the season, but he was clearly not 100 percent at the beginning of the year. Once he got healthy, his game has taken off.
Mitchell finished the season averaging 24 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists per game. He shot 43 percent from the field, 36 percent from 3-point range, and 80 percent from the line. He’s become one of the more dynamic scorers in basketball and he’s absolutely enormous to Utah’s hopes of competing in this series. Houston’s biggest issue feels like trying to keep Mitchell out of the lane. Last year, Trevor Ariza gave him fits with his length, athleticism and sneaky strength. Who keeps Mitchell out of the lane this season?
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Iko: I think it will be a collaborative effort, rather than have one guy just glued to him throughout. P.J. Tucker will get reps, as will Eric Gordon, Chris Paul, Iman Shumpert and especially Austin Rivers. Rivers absolutely loves the challenge of stopping ball-dominant guards, and he knows he’s becomes somewhat underrated in this league. Expect a bevvy of hands and communication.
Mitchell is an extraordinary talent and loves taking challenges head on, from what I’ve seen this year. You know him pretty well, and you know he’s not afraid to call James Harden out on an island, as he did several times during the series last year. Harden held his ground, but that’s not going to deter Mitchell from going full head of steam. Remember that damn dunk he had in Game 2?
Jones: How can I forget? It was my TNT debut! But the best thing about Mitchell and the Jazz as a whole is that they are a resilient bunch who typically play best when they are doubted the most. I think the Jazz have a few advantages in this series that they didn’t have last year.
Iko: Oh, yeah, like what? Lay it on me, Tony.
Jones: For one, last year they were coming off an emotional and physically draining six-game series against Oklahoma City, which means the Jazz all but sacrificed Game 1. Jazz head coach Quin Snyder and his staff will have more time to prepare than last year. Also, the Jazz will have Ricky Rubio. And that means the Rockets will have a more difficult time taking the Jazz out of their offense than last season, when they had an easy time taking the Jazz out of their offense.
Iko: D’Antoni was super quick to point on that notion. Said Rubio’s presence brings a different aspect to the series, as does the addition of Kyle Korver and his fantastic hair. What you know about hair, Tony?
Jones: As anyone can see, not much. That ship sailed early in life.
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Iko: But in all honesty, Utah is playing some of the best basketball I’ve seen since that terrible weekend in Charlotte. But that’s for another day.
They’re top 5 in 3-point percentage (37.9) since the break, as well as fourth in rebounding and second in assists. Anyone looking at those three numbers could tell you that’s a damn good basketball team. And that’s before you even talk about the defense, which ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency. Over 82 games. That’s insane. What’s been the key to this, from your vantage point?
Jones: The schedule got easier for the Jazz, but they also got better defensively. They adjusted and figured out how to make life easier for Rudy Gobert. And once they did that, it allowed Gobert to do what he does, which is control the paint and be the defensive player of the year candidate that he truly is. Whether that works against the Rockets remains to be seen. Harden is unlike almost any other offensive player in NBA history, and the Rockets simply make you play differently than you are used to. But, the Jazz have seen the Rockets in a playoff series before. They now know what to expect, and they are eager for the challenge.
Iko: Before we go, I want to touch on the Gobert topic. He doesn’t get nearly enough love around the league. Part of it might be the market that he plays in, but a lot of it is simply ignorance. Gobert has had a tremendous year, and was disappointing not to see him be named an All-Star.
He’s the best defensive big man in the game today and single-handedly steers offenses away from his presence: “The Stifle Tower,” as I like to call him. How has he responded since the emotional outburst, not being selected to represent the Jazz in Charlotte?
Jones: I think he’s played some of his best basketball since the All-Star break. I think he’s been good enough that it will be a shame if he isn’t named third team all-NBA. He’s certainly been one of the three best centers in basketball this season.
All that being said, Gobert’s facing his toughest challenge in this series. The narrative is strong that Houston played him off the floor last year and that he was dominated by Clint Capela. I disagree. I think Gobert was dominated by Harden’s ability to get downhill off the dribble and force Gobert to play one-on-two against him and Capela.
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In this sense, the Jazz guards are going to have to help Gobert out in this series. If Harden gets as much separation off the dribble as he did last year, it’s going to be another layup or dunk-fest at the rim for Houston. For Gobert to be effective in this series, people like Rubio and Royce O’Neale are going to have to defend well on the perimeter. It has to be a team effort because Houston is simply that good. The Jazz can’t reasonably ask Gobert to save them by himself, because Houston has too many weapons.
Iko: The Jazz also have one more weapon in the tuck: Patrick Beverly and his sage advice. I know you saw him lacing Jae Crowder up after the game, giving him some last-minute tips on defending James Harden. And I KNOW you saw Harden’s response on Instagram. This series will be FUN.
Jones: All of that is nice and all, but there’s really no guarding Harden at this point. You just have to hope he misses enough shots to give you a chance. I think the Jazz are going to be better in this series than they were last spring. But the reality is this: they are still a young team at its core, and the Rockets are a veteran team at their core. And with Harden at the top of his game, the Jazz are going to have to play almost perfectly to steal this series. I think Utah will play well. I don’t think the Jazz will play perfectly. So, I think the Rockets will defeat the Jazz in six games.
Iko: I agree with you on all of those points Tony. I actually have it going five games, simply because I don’t want to make two trips to Utah.
Me, walking in the arena in Salt Lake City for Game 3, when I could have been in LA pic.twitter.com/6iauDmx5q3
— Kelly Iko (@KellyIkoNBA) April 10, 2019
But Utah is a great team and so is Houston. This should be an interesting, close series each game. Mitchell will impress, Gobert will block and Crowder will hit timely threes. Can’t wait to watch.
(Photo: Chris Elise / NBAE via Getty Images)
